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Apple Phone: My prediction Jason F. Jan 09 2007

106 comments Latest by brad

The consensus is that today Apple is going to announce a phone.

Some are calling it a personal communicator or a convergent device or a pocket computer or a “4th screen.” I’m not so sure.

Apple makes history not by leapfrogging everyone in terms of functionality and bells and whistles, they do it through elegance, simplification, clarity, and practicality.

I see no reason why they won’t follow that strategy with their phone. It will change the game, but not because it does more than everyone else’s phone. I think we’ll see just the opposite.

Apple will execute on the basics beautifully. Just like they did with the original Mac. Just like they did with the iMac. Just like they did with the iPod.

The mobile phone world is littered with crap. The interfaces are tragic. The materials are cheap. The build quality is marginal. And of course the sound sucks.

These are the things people complain about. They don’t complain that they can’t video conference with their friends. They don’t complain that they don’t have advanced voice recognition. They don’t complain that their phone doesn’t open an Excel spreadsheet and sync with Quickbooks. They complain because the sound sucks, the interface is miserable, and the phone is falling apart.

Apple can change this because that’s what Apple does. They can look at the crisis points of a typical experience and erase them one by one. Not by adding a lot of new things things, but by removing the crap and paying attention to the basics.

The basics are the secrets of business. Execute on the basics beautifully and you’ll have a lot of customers knocking at your door. Cool wears off, usefulness never does.

Most people just want things that work well and, unfortunately, the mobile phone business is littered with things that don’t work. That’s Apple’s opportunity. Build something small, light, beautiful, and useful that works and they’ll win.

That’s not to say it won’t have the usual twists and surprises that we’ve come to expect from Apple, but they’ll be modest in implementation and bold in impact. And, like the iPod, it will play especially nice with Macs to start.

I’m so looking forward to 9am PST.

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106 comments so far

Ben 09 Jan 07

What are the chances of it being available in the UK so I can ditch my Samsung rubbish…

Richard Bird 09 Jan 07

And don’t forget the Newton, which failed because it was ahead of its time. Perhaps ahead of the technology that would have – to your point – allowed it to be elegant, visual, et cetera. Following on that notion, Apple will wait until technology allows its phone entry to be everything we now expect from Apple.

Noah Winecoff 09 Jan 07

Good prediction…I’ll go along with it.

Daniel Morrison 09 Jan 07

I couldn’t agree more.

My simple phone already does a ton of stuff (calendar, internet, games, etc.) but its so hard to use, that I only make calls.

I also don’t want to open Excel files or run Java software. I just want a phone that’s easy to use.

Apple can do it better, with nice integration with OS X . I have my credit card ready.

MacShout 09 Jan 07

Interesting take. While true, I think we will see two versions either today or in the near future. One as you describe, simple, elegant, mac like. The second will be similar in stying, but much more of a portable computer, think baby Newton.

I think the turning point on how well the “iPhone” does is how Apple decides to sell it. Will it be sold through Cingular only? Will it be sold through normal Apple channels only, and open to any carrier? Will it be sold through Apple only, and will Apple start it’s own carrier? Americans are used to subsidized phones, which is why we get crap. I see Apple doing something different here, I am much more interested in this side of the announcement than what the phone will actually look like

JF 09 Jan 07

I think Apple will go GSM and they’ll sell it unlocked. They’ll probably cut a deal with Cingular at the start, but I don’t see Apple getting too attached to one company in this space.

wayne 09 Jan 07

If it’s unlocked, I’m getting in line right n….

Paul Thiel 09 Jan 07

In the UK and much of Europe, the mobile phone has become the ultimate fashion accessory – form before function; beauty before basics. On this level, I am sure that the Apple Phone can do well.

For me though, not withstanding I want my phone to be functional and good looking, I just wish there were more choices of provider, with better quality signals and digital coverage.

An Apple phone on GSM will not work for me out in NH. Although Cingular coverage is increasing, it is still nowhere near good enough to be useful on a practical level. That leaves me with the standard Verizon and US Cellular CDMA crap that loses my calls every five frikkin minutes.

Ah well … I’ll just look forward to my next trip back to the UK where I can use my Nokia 3220 that cost me GBP19 .99, roams on every network, is simple to use, holds a charge for best part of a week and provides the clearest of calls!

sandeep 09 Jan 07

Excellent posting. I enjoyed it . But let us not forget Apple executes based on a closed garden approach – it’s own hardware, software and services. In a open ecosystem – interoperatability comes at the price of quality.

Sandeep covering internet video revolution http://www.onlinevideopunch.com

thibaut 09 Jan 07

Some ideas pretty much in line with yours, but I think they will go with a dedicated phone network to offer more compatibility between the mac and the phone (sms from your mac for example). Orange has a plan for an adsl connection plus a rented macbook in France now, so who knows if it can’t go further than this.

Dan Boland 09 Jan 07

With all the buzz and speculation, I’m just hoping not to be underwhelmed by whatever they announce.

JB 09 Jan 07

Yes, GSM and unlocked is also my bet: how could they sell it in Europe, if they went for CDMA ?

Daniel 09 Jan 07

You know, I think many people WILL be underwhelmed, regardless of the outcome today.

Apple could unveil something TOTALLY unexpected that renders half of all consumer electronics obsolete in one day, and some people will still be putt off because it doesn’t have Tablet PC functionality, or doesn’t have iChat AV built in.

Rachel 09 Jan 07

I’m looking forward to this product, if it materializes, just to see the Apple-ization of a phone UI. This site has promised to post pics during the keynote: http://www.macrumorslive.com/

Now I wonder if I can exchange the video iPod I bought last week. D’oh.

Aaron Blohowiak 09 Jan 07

I’d like to see AAPL hit 92 today.

Richard 09 Jan 07

This is the clearest, most well-reasoned prediction and talk about an Apple mobile phone I’ve read anywhere. I hope you’re right and I hope they do it just as you’ve said.

Paddy 09 Jan 07

I used to work in the UID group for “a major mobile phone manufacturer”, so you can throw rocks at me. In my defense (and in defense of phone UI designers in general) it was crappy environment to work in.

It’s been 5 years since I left that industry and I’m not up on the literature, but I’m curious as to what people thing would result in a significantly better UI. If you were working on a phone UI, what would you do differently? I’d also appreciate a link to a good article on this topic, if one exists.

Emile 09 Jan 07

Absof*inlutely perfectly put. Indeed, Apple simply redefines with great engineering and user-based centrism where every other company seems to falter.

Can’t wait to chatter about the stevenote

Andy 09 Jan 07

Well, Apple has released a mobile phone which is multifunctional (web browser, mobile and widescreen iPod in one)

Larry Wright 09 Jan 07

They just announced the mobile phone, per Engadget.

JF 09 Jan 07

It’s looking like I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about ;)

John Topley 09 Jan 07

It’s looking like I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about ;)

I don’t know, it’s got one button on the front!

Anonymous Coward 09 Jan 07

Anyone in Redmond that can confirm that the city is still intact after Ballmer detonated upon seeing this thing?

Luigi 09 Jan 07

I don’t know if you’re all that wrong Jason. It looks to be a pocket computer that just works. Elegant interface, quality materials, etc.

If the phone-calling experience is as elegant as the music playing experience (which is elegant as the emailing experience), then I think they will have done their job. Of course, that won’t be determined until people get their hands on it.

Andy 09 Jan 07

I have to admit, after all the rumors and build up I was almost sure to be underwhelmed since it was predicted to do everything.

But it really is fuckin’ cool!

Terry Sutton 09 Jan 07

And there it is:

http://www.macrumorslive.com/

Rachel 09 Jan 07

Wow. They’ve done away with the big UI problem of having to repurpose standard phone buttons to serve multiple purposes. No buttons, all screen. Brilliant!

John Topley 09 Jan 07

It certainly looks a big step ahead of anything else. It will be interesting to see how that screen shapes up once it’s covered in fingerprints.

Rachel 09 Jan 07

... or covered with makeup from being held next to your face.

pk 09 Jan 07

i wonder if it’ll be as easy to type on as a blackberry for emails

brad 09 Jan 07

Hmmm, he announced the phone less than one hour into the keynote, which makes me wonder what the “one more thing” will be when he gets to that?!

Luigi 09 Jan 07

Brad,

The iPhone nano of course!

Damian 09 Jan 07

I wonder how long the battery lasts

Eamon 09 Jan 07

Looks slick. I’ll definitely try it out, but as I type a lot on my Treo, I doubt the virtual keyboard will cut the mustard.

--Josh 09 Jan 07

Aww Jason – don’t tell me you’ve taken to calling markets “spaces” like all of the other hipster doofus DotCom guys. It’s not a “space” – it’s a market. It’s business. I’d think that you’d have a Getting Real entry about that term. It’s just so incorrect and shows the incorrect focus of the person using it.

Andrew 09 Jan 07

Good prediction – this thing rocks. I just wish I had a $US account yesterday so I could have purchased AAPL .

@ Josh 09 Jan 07

This is one of these: HEY -JASON-I-AM-SMARTER-AND-COOLER-THAN-YOU Comments. Thanks Josh.

brad 09 Jan 07

@Damien: battery lasts 5 hours, 16 hours for just music.

It’s a bit pricey but seems worth it for all that you get.

Not available til June, though, and not available in Europe til late this year.

--Josh 09 Jan 07

Sorry, that “space” thing just always bugs me and I was surprised to see someone who is usually very reasoned, well-spoken, and mindful of the subtle mistakes of others use it. I didn’t intend to belittle Jason, and certainly don’t think his using that term makes him any better or worse than myself. Don’t read arrogance or malice into something when it’s not there. And tell me that you would have been surprised to see a 37SvN post titled They’re not “spaces” they’re markets.

If it makes you feel any better I’ll admit to using the term “users” sometimes :).

f5 09 Jan 07

Interesting aspect: it runs OSX and the interface is entirely digital. This thing is infinitely capable and upgradable. Idealistically, this is a great way to break the cycle of disposable phones…lets just hope it lasts longer than the ipods do at ~2 years.

Mark 09 Jan 07

When I read this entry this afternoon, I thought it was just another Apple-fanboy drool-a-thon over anything Jobs puts out.

But having just seen the photos of the iPhone on Engadget, I feel like ditching everything I own that doesn’t taste of Apple – that phone is going to be an absolute sensation.

You’re right, Apple just gets it.

And the nice thing is, it’ll come out in Europe just as my current contract expires :) Here’s hoping Vodafone partners up.

Kyle Korleski 09 Jan 07

I would love to have an Apple iPhone as well. More importantly, it would be lovely if it integrated with Address Book and other such Apple applications.

Phil 09 Jan 07

I dunno, I would have LOVED to have bought what Jason was suggesting. This just looks like a fragile, expensive PDA . I guess if you were debating buying a treo or something, this is a prettier alternative. But exclusivity contracts with Cingular are even more nails in the coffin for me.

Luc 09 Jan 07

After seeing this, I am going to: -buy a MAC -buy an iTV -buy an iPhone in June.

If they put out that Keynote on DVD , I bet you a lot of people would buy it. I would personally pay $40 for a good quality DVD to see the whole thing. The presentation seemed so well done. Or.. they could sell it on iTunes to be watched on iTV :-)

warren 09 Jan 07

http://www.apple.com/iphone/phone/

the flash demo of how the phone actually looks and works is top-notch in my opinion.

Anonymous Coward 09 Jan 07

It will probably be on YouTube in a few minutes. His other presentations are.

Andy Kant 09 Jan 07

The phone sounds awesome with the exception of the loss of physical number buttons. That pretty much throws it out for me, I hate devices that don’t have physical feedback for my actions (which is also why I don’t use universal remotes). The touch screen in general though is a big step forward in phones of that form factor.

condor 09 Jan 07

the iphone is slick, the interface appears very intelligent, and chances are i’ll probably get it. but i’ll second what phil just said . . wouldn’t it be nice if apple came out with a killer, simple, functional phone (ie. a cheaper iphone without the music and browser). huge fan of the visual voicemail feature.

MacShout 09 Jan 07

I think Apple made a huge mistake. The iPhone is ridiculous, a conglomeration of all the juiciest apple/ipod rumors from the last year. I was ready to be underwhelmed, something similar to what Jason described, just another phone. I sat in amazement as feature after feature was introduced.

The mistake came in the last 2 minutes of the presentation. I am fine with pricing, a bit high, but I can deal with it, as will everyone else. However, the choice to go Cingular only is bewildering to me. Apple had a chance to set a precedence and sell a fantastic phone completely unlocked and free from any carriers restrictions/requirements. A step that many other carriers would emulate for sure. Apple may have revolutionized the cellular phone, but they had a chance to change the market at the same time. Too bad.

On the other hand, if you are into iTunes, the Apple TV appears to be totally sweet. I wish there was another version with a bigger HD, but I can live with it, it is surely upgradeable if needs be.

Rachel M 09 Jan 07

The materials are cheap. The build quality is marginal.

I had to do a double take to be sure you weren’t talking about the iPod rather than modern mobile phones! My gen3 iPod has all of the above issues. Yeah, it’s old, but it’s had issues since within the first year.

Even with careful care, the first drop caused an unsightly dent. Within months there was a line through the screen. The battery life has been nil for years. The hold button sticks, so you have to rapidly switch it back and forth to get it off hold. If I try to sync it to my computer, my computer crashes (and it’s perfectly stable otherwise). I’ve had the same music on it for 2 years.

All I can say is, let’s hope the iPhone is made better than the iPod…! What Apple did for the interface of MP3 players was negated by the crappiness of the hardware.

Jake Walker 09 Jan 07

It seems as though the reason they stayed away from doing an easily unlocked phone, and did a deal with Cingular, was to do innovative things on the network itself, like the smart voicemail feature. Having control of the whole network certainly does enable them to do some innovative things they wouldn’t otherwise be able to do with an unlocked phone. That said, they could always just offer that feature when you are on a supported network, and not offer it on other networks.

Ian Waring 09 Jan 07

Well guys, it runs OS/X. Did someone say “game over” :-)

JF 09 Jan 07

Jake: Exactly. They had to have some control in order to deliver some of the key features.

I think the other reason is that buying a phone with no service attached to it is a foreign idea for most Americans. Having to buy a phone one place and bring it somewhere else to turn it on is complicated. Buying a phone and having the store put the sim card in and turning it on is a much simpler process for most folks.

Aaron Blohowiak 09 Jan 07

Rachel M ~ Replace your ipod battery. google for more info. As for crashing your computer, have done a soft reset? Or simply taken it into an apple store?

BTW : AAPL now at 91.78 go, go go!

Paul Hart 09 Jan 07

Although it has the sensor, there appears to be no support for video capture yet (that I can find on the Apple website). That’ll be something for Steve to play up at some future presentation, in a similar way to gapless playback was for the iPod.

itsandyw 09 Jan 07

Add me to the “simpler is better” camp. I do appreciate how they improve telephone functionality, but how about improving its core functions? I have always felt that the phone was intended to be the next-best thing to face-to-face contact. So I was bummed that video chat was not an option in this first launch; seems like a logical progression and it’s already being used in iChat AV anyway.

The only other gripe I have is, as great as surfing the web w/ traditional browsers is, a handheld feels ill-suited, even with the super-fun multitouch pan/zoom. The Widgets, GoogleMaps, and other mini-apps seem to work wonderfully though. They should push these much further, versus just a copy-paste from previous versions.

Can’t wait.

Hartvig 09 Jan 07

JF+Jake: There’s probably also the pricing issue. Here in Denmark phones without plans are usually two to four times as expensive. So Apple probably gets a decent kickback from cingular for every phone. My bet is that the iPhone without a plan would be at least twice the price if you look at what you get compared to “just” an iPod nano. Loads of expensive R&D, licensed components, etc inside.

brad 09 Jan 07

@Rachel M: it’s funny, I bought my iPod in February 2004 and so far it’s been the most reliable product I’ve ever bought from Apple. The battery life is still good, it synchs perfectly, and I’ve never had any problems, which unfortunately is more than I can say for any of the six Macs I’ve owned since 1986.

Anyway, back to the iPhone, although I would have been happy with something simpler and basic (which in fact Apple may yet have up its sleeve), this thing appeals to me as a truly ‘smart’ phone that will come in very handy on business trips.

Philip Martin 09 Jan 07

What’s the betting that they went with a temporarily exclusive contract with Cingular in order to get their hands on the ‘iPhone’ moniker.

tamimat 09 Jan 07

What i don’t like is how they solved the sms chat. But all in all the product looks awesome.

brad 09 Jan 07

@tamimat: well, it has bluetooth and OSX …I bet if you wanted to you could pack a bluetooth keyboard and do sms and e-mail with a full-size keyboard on your lap and the iphone sitting by your side!

Philip Martin 09 Jan 07

Oops! My mistake! It’s Cisco that owns the iPhone trademark, not Cingular.

I’d guess, however, that the price is a ‘bare’ unsubsidised price. They’ll stick with Cingular for the time being and then open too all comers later.

Yan 09 Jan 07

I love it. I’m anxious to know when it will be available for us Canucks. Usually Rogers carries the same phones as Cingular.

Scott Yates 09 Jan 07

Funny to me is that on this day Microsoft announces that as a promotion it will be sending someone into space.

Maybe from up there they won’t be able to get excited about Apple’s phone. The iPod sold a ton of Macs, the phone will do the same.

Apple is happy “marketing” by just building better products.

Brklynsurfer 09 Jan 07

Looks like Apple is taking the market from the top down. Getting in on the high end of mobile phones is smarter than trying to compete with Nokia and Moto at the low end. One of his slides shows that they are aiming for %1 of the market in mobile phones. That seems reasonable with this device. I would really like to see how responsive that on screen keyboard is, and if it is available in widescreen mode.

dave rau 09 Jan 07

I’m still waiting for a phone that doesn’t have all the bullshit; no camera, no web browser, no games, no color screen; just a phone with an address book. Come on, where is it?

It would be the cheapest phone around and look how many people buy based on price alone. Wouldn’t a super simple phone make a lot of money?

Dan Boland 09 Jan 07

Apple hit one out of the park with the iPhone. Totally goes above and beyond my expectations. The videos on Apple’s site really show off what the phone can do. (By the way, anyone else notice that examples of using the built-in camera are nowhere to be found?)

The one huge problem is Cingular… I’m not switching to f-ing Cingular. Apple can bite me.

Ian Waring 09 Jan 07

RoR meets mobile apps. I hope they give DHH one to play with.

David Martinez 09 Jan 07

Here’s what will put the phone over the top:

Synching with Outlook & Or Gmail: Contacts, Calendar, etc.

If Apple can manage that, you’ll see a huge body of people (all the iPod owners with PCs) jump on this.

Jon Gretar 09 Jan 07

Jake Walker Wrote: “It seems as though the reason they stayed away from doing an easily unlocked phone, and did a deal with Cingular, was to do innovative things on the network itself, like the smart voicemail feature.”
I don’t think the visual voicemail feature has anything to do with the carrier. I have a feeling that this is just a software voicemail.

But there was one feature missing. Ant that was the only feature I was hoping for. I really was hoping for Apple to make a kind of a iChat video device. It would have been so simple to just put the camera on the front and port the iChat application.

Scott Meade 09 Jan 07

JF’s comment about “removing the crap and paying attention to basics” reminds me of my favorite story of an inventor working through all the crap and focussing on simple. Paul Isreal, in his Edison biography, writes of the invention of the phonograph:

“[In 1878] the phonograph was a marvel that amazed both the scientific and technical community and the public because of its utter simplicity. Accoustics was a matter of so much scientific interest during the nineteenth century. Scientists…had devised complex mechanisms for this purpose. They recognized the ear as one of the most complicated parts of the human anatomy. As a result, the simple mechanism and operation of the phonograph seemed astounding and prompted initial skepticism. .. Edison even received a letter from one professor advising Edison to protect his ‘good reputation as an inventor among scientific men’ by denying the account of the phonograph.” (p. 142)

Just like Apple does briliantly, Edison did a hundred years ago and we should do more of today.

Marc Love 09 Jan 07

The “data phone” idea has never enticed me, and I was never sure why. Now I know. The UI for all the products out there just looked like too much hassle to bother with for the functionality. I gotta say though, the iPhone suddenly makes me want all that extra functionality.

Although I must say, I would still love to see a “Nano” version of this phone for those who really have no use for all the extra stuff and just want a really intuitive phone (and one that won’t cost $500 WITH a plan.

Also, I despise Cingular with a passion. Their horrible service is second to none. I left them years ago and swore I would never ever go back. The iPhone is certainly going to test the strength of my commitment. Does anyone know how long this “exclusive” contract with Cingular is supposed to be?

Eddie 09 Jan 07

How about the Yahoo! agreement? Opera ASA also announced yesterday they would be partnering with Yahoo! for their mobile browsers (over google) as well.

Yahoo! just took a couple big strides into the mobile browsing arena. My two favorite companies are picking Yahoo! oneSearch, maybe there’s something to it?

Marc Love 09 Jan 07

Here’s my initial wish list for the first software update or 2G:

- Push Gmail (I’ll be damned if I’m gonna use Yahoo again) - CDMA version - Skype support with option to default to VOIP when connected to WiFi - Seemless integration of text messaging and internet messaging

Anonymous Coward 09 Jan 07

Here’s what will put the phone over the top:

Synching with Outlook & Or Gmail: Contacts, Calendar, etc.

I’m sure that will happen; some guys working on it already – http://blog.spanningsync.com/2007/01/spanning_sync_t.html

dodo 09 Jan 07

finally we’re going to have cooler phones than the japanese

Rob Hyndman 09 Jan 07

I think Jobs used the word “leapfrog” just to poke Jason in the eye.

:)

Killian 09 Jan 07

Apple did it again! They delivered on just about everything I would want from a ‘smart’ phone and plopped a killer interface on top.

The only skepticism I have regards the keyboard input. They claim it is smarter and better than the mini buttons on my Treo but I’ll have to use it hands on to believe it.

Who knows – I might be willing to put up with a small typing aggrevation even if it doesnt live up to the hype. Who would have thought that little scroll wheel was as usefull as it turned out to be?

Mathias Stjernstrom 09 Jan 07

Jason: I would have payed the double to get the phone in your prediction.

Hell, i just trashed my http://www.europe.htc.com/products/qteks200.html and bought a simple phone…..

Just because apple makes a complex phone does not mean it works. Hey, osx i great but not bug free.

Apple: KISS !

jimmy 09 Jan 07

@Rachel M

The reason your iPod is so screwed up is because you dropped it! Gotta put more careful in the careful care.

TimH 09 Jan 07

Vodafone Simply, anyone?

Kyle 09 Jan 07

Can’t wait to see a developer platform on this thing. All I could think about after seeing the UI was porting widgets to this thing. I imagine it’d be a breeze to have Basecamp and Backpack widget on this thing.

Damn you Apple, I got hardly any work done today. This thing is amazing. I was skeptical about the keyboard at first, but after seeing the demo on Apple’s website, I’m completely sold. So friggin amazing.

I’m in love all over again.

Gueorgi 09 Jan 07

And so you are worng!!! Apple’s new phone is nothing, but simple. Yes. interface seems to be more clear, but it only seems so because we watched the animations closely. I am not sure my mom would figure out how to use it from scratch.

Yes, Apple’s incorporated some new technologsie, which brings advantages, but… It’s still the same qeyboard that appears on the screen. Not a fresh idea, btw (see Quay phone).

As for the interface… I can’t say it’s original. Same icons, like on many other phones. And what disappointed me, the design is not consistent. Looks like several visual designers worked on it. Take a look at the iPod player interface alone. Song list is just out of the line. Or direct number dial… If I only saw this picture, I wouldnt say Apple did it.

Overall it’s nothing super new. And considering the stupid mistakes Apple made choosing Cingular with it’s 2-years plan as exclusive provider, not bringing the phone to Europe and God knows why not making it a 3G phone… it will only survive because of true Mac fans.

P.S. And there are still questions about how to print, if it syncs with Outlook, can other apps be run and developed…

JonGretar 10 Jan 07

Gueorgi: “P.S. And there are still questions about how to print, if it syncs with Outlook, can other apps be run and developed…”
Do people actually still print. I’m not joking. It sounds a bit to me like the fact that some people use fax still. It can sync to outlook. And it was very clear that you can develop applications for it and that it’s almost the same as doing applications for MacOS X since it has many of the same libraries.

I’m quite glad it’s not 3G. 3G is having VERY slow adoption rate and there are few carriers to choose from. When I need bandwidth then odds are I’m in a place with free wifi.

Jake Walker 10 Jan 07

Jon Gretar: I don’t think the visual voicemail feature has anything to do with the carrier. I have a feeling that this is just a software voicemail. But there was one feature missing. Ant that was the only feature I was hoping for. I really was hoping for Apple to make a kind of a iChat video device. It would have been so simple to just put the camera on the front and port the iChat application.

It’s not simple software voicemail, from what I understand. It’s integrated with Cingular’s voicemail system. In fact, from Engadget’s coverage:

SJ: “They’re going to be our exclusive partner in the US—it’s a unique partnership though. We’re going to be doing innovation together. We worked on visual voicemail, the first fruit of this collaboration. We’ll be selling iPhone through our own stores and Cingular stores.”

Have no doubt that future collaboration will involve iTunes Store over EDGE , and other incremental revenue generating innovations…

Ping 10 Jan 07

The only reason iPhone maight have success in US is because i their mobile phone market is awful. In Europe and Asia – no way!

Nokia N Series, Nokia E Series, SE P990 , SE Walkman?

FredS 10 Jan 07

Apple doesn’t care about Europe or Asia.

Anonymous Coward 10 Jan 07

Apple doesn’t care about Europe or Asia which is why they made a Quadband GSM phone. Get your head out of your ass.

Please Eat My Pies 10 Jan 07

Looks friggin sweet but like my two ipods it’s probably gonna be buggy.

FredS 10 Jan 07

Anonymous Coward doesn’t understand sarcasm.

Kevin Navia 10 Jan 07

Looks friggin sweet!

My concerns with the iPhone:

With a touch based interface and a big “end call” button, what would stop my cheek to end the call?

The iChat thingy for SMS msgs turns me off, i hope theres an alternative to display messages and the likes. (I think there is in iChat… Windoze user here.)

Tony 10 Jan 07

what would stop my cheek to end the call?

The proximity sensor, which turns off the screen and multi-touch when the phone is to your ear.

Sanat Gersappa 10 Jan 07

Now, I’m waiting for the Google Phone. Hopefully, that should be market changing.

Allan W. 10 Jan 07

I hear what some people are saying about phones that are overly complex – getting away from basic phone “just talk” functionality. Those phones exist – they’re 3+ years old and hard to find nowadays.

The iPhone is about a phone plus all that other data stuff. If one’s going to add other functionality, this is the most elegant way to do it. Steve made a valid point about interfaces early on in his iPhone talk (paraphrased from TUAW coverage):

These phones all have keyboards that are there whether you need them or not. And they have buttons and controls that can’t change if you want to add an idea to the product six months down the road.

I don’t see how to innovate in this particular space without software-based interfaces. The multichorded UI aspect is groundbreaking. The tactility of key-based interfaces is sure nice, but limits innovation and upgradability.

Eben 10 Jan 07

This thing totally changes the game. The other phone manufacturers are freaking out.

brian 10 Jan 07

“Cingular, a unit of AT&T (up $0.13 to $33.94, Charts), will be Apple’s sole U.S. partner. It’s an exclusive multiyear agreement, which means no other carrier will be able to sell the iPhone through 2009.”

- Business 2.0 artcle by Owen Thomas

Sandro Paganotti 10 Jan 07

Yes Jason, apple is the best in erasing all the problems on the technology he’s working on, but we have to think that behind the simplicity of an interface there is always a big research ( 5 years for the iPhone ).

Sandro.

pramit 10 Jan 07

MediaVidea analyzes 8 important issues related to iPhone and Apple’s future course of direction. http://mediavidea.blogspot.com/2007/01/apples-iphone-8-important-issues.html

Eric 10 Jan 07

Sadly, if you read carefully here, Apple representatives are apparently claiming the iPhone is a completely closed platform, although third-party developers are encouraged to talk to Developer Services.

That would be exceedingly painful. I want to write apps for this thing!

Tywho 10 Jan 07

“Apple…why can’t I quit you!”.

This phone is awesome of course in terms of design and it’s going to be hard to resist the urge to pick one of these up but it still doesn’t address some major issues for me. Most of these have already been mentioned but the biggest for me is of course the contract with cingular and the fact that it’s not portable in terms of service. This is realy unforgivable. We need someone to set a precedent. It’s ridiculous that we can’t separate the device for the service. Also what about VOIP ? Was that mentioned in the keynote (I did not watch the whole thing yet.)

I don’t really care what the behind the scenes issues are. It’s not my job to make excuses for Apple. It’s not my problem. I’m a consumer and this is what I want.

I actually like the fact that the keyboard is not part of the hard ware. It gets out of your way when you don’t need it and leaves more room for the interface. I’m hoping typing will go the way of the dodo anyway in favor of voice recognition (I’m lazy so there).

I will say as a designer trying to figure out what the hell to do to make my site friendly to mobile devices without having to create a totally new site (remember the pain of having to create a separate site for HTML and Flash? ewwww). So having a web browser that accurately reads my site is a huge plus.

Anyway, time to go to work and I think I’m going to leave my phone behind for a day and see if I really need it. What did we do before cell phones?

Tywho 10 Jan 07

“Apple…why can’t I quit you!”.

This phone is awesome of course in terms of design and it’s going to be hard to resist the urge to pick one of these up but it still doesn’t address some major issues for me. Most of these have already been mentioned but the biggest for me is of course the contract with cingular and the fact that it’s not portable in terms of service. This is realy unforgivable. We need someone to set a precedent. It’s ridiculous that we can’t separate the device for the service. Also what about VOIP ? Was that mentioned in the keynote (I did not watch the whole thing yet.)

I don’t really care what the behind the scenes issues are. It’s not my job to make excuses for Apple. It’s not my problem. I’m a consumer and this is what I want.

I actually like the fact that the keyboard is not part of the hard ware. It gets out of your way when you don’t need it and leaves more room for the interface. I’m hoping typing will go the way of the dodo anyway in favor of voice recognition (I’m lazy so there).

I will say as a designer trying to figure out what the hell to do to make my site friendly to mobile devices without having to create a totally new site (remember the pain of having to create a separate site for HTML and Flash? ewwww). So having a web browser that accurately reads my site is a huge plus.

Anyway, time to go to work and I think I’m going to leave my phone behind for a day and see if I really need it. What did we do before cell phones?

Gueorgi 10 Jan 07

Do people actually still print.

Well, yes. There are many people that still print, especially in the corporate world. That it also the reason for the latest Xerox invention of digital paper, which holds content visible for several hours after which text vanishes and you can reuse the paper again and again. Based on Xerox’ research, 80% of the documents are being printed for one-time reading only and it happens within following several hours.

Finally, images. If I want to print an image which I took with iPhone, should I synchronize it first with my real mac?

tamberg 10 Jan 07

http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/09/the-apple-iphone/

matt 10 Jan 07

Jason – i’m reading your notes a day later and i still think your analysis is correct.

if the iPhone succeeds it will be because of simplicity and elegance in usability. The conference calling thing was DOA , and others are correct to say that text (SMS) is the killer app for a mobile device not voice.

The Blackberry distinguished itself with text, not voice. Power phone users in Europe are power-texting, not power-calling. If the text engine and responsiveness, works, the device will work. If it doesn’t, it will fail.

brad 11 Jan 07

Matt, I think you’re missing the point. The iPhone is not designed for “power phone users.” It’s for “the rest of us.” I’ve had a cellphone for three years now, and you know how many text messages I’ve received in all that time? One. But I’ve sure made and received a lot of calls on it. The pricing on the iPhone will put it out of reach of most teenagers and people in their 20s who are texting all the time; I think most people who buy the iPhone will use it as a phone first, an iPod second, and an Internet device third, with texting falling somewhere in between.

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